Thursday 7/28/11 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[WINNERS_ONLY]

Safestwagering

Saratoga

Doubles, Pick3, Pick 4:
Race 6) 9
Race 7) 4/6/8
Race 8) 5/7
Race 9) 5/6/8 (If a scratch, add #7)
Race 10) 3/4/5/10

Race 6) 1 Mile (Inner Turf) Md 50,000

#9 Dodging (morning line 2-1)
Faces a very suspect crew, with many being offered for much less than
their sales price of stud fee.
Drops a notch, after being competive with better, and coming back from
a brief freshening.

Safer Bet:
a) #9 to Win, Place or Show

Exotics:
None

Race 7) 5.5 Furlongs (Turf) Quick Call Stake

#8 Great Mills (morning line 6-1)
This colt never has a problem getting to the front and
has been going longer. He's won both his starts at this distance.
Front end speed has been holding up the last 4 days, which should help.
Note that his best races have been run on firm turf.
That would be today.

Safer Bet:
a) #7 to Win, Place or Show

Exotics:
b) Trifecta: 8 with 2/3/4/6 with 2/3/4/6
c) Super 8 with 2/3/4/6 with 2/3/4/6 with 2/3/4/6

Race 8) 6.5 Furlongs OC 50k/N2x

#5 Full Of Gut (morning line 3-1)
Has been claimed 3 times in the last year for top trainers, and has shown nice ROI for
each conditioner. She's been in the exacta in 70% of her starts in last 2 years.
Today she's entered without a tag for the first time in 8 starts.

Safer Bet:
a) #5 to Win, Place or Show

Exotics:
b) Trifecta: 5 with 1/2/3/6/7 with 1/2/3/6/7

Race 9) 1 1/8 Miles Alw 53,000N1x

#8 Authenticity (morning line 6-1)
Takes the tough move up from Md Sp Wts, and faces some nice stock.

#5 will be your probable favorite after being ridden out in last.
My top choice has had poor starts in both lifetime races, but still managed
to almost pass them all.... some were next out winners.
A better break, and expected increase in stamina today, makes this one
live at nice odds.

Safer Bet:
a) #8 to Win, Place or Show

Exotics:
b) Trifecta: 8 with 5/6/7 with 5/6/7

 

[WINNERS_ONLY]

WUNDERDOG (HORSES)

SARATOGA Race #4 at 2:30 PM Eastern

Top pick: #2 (EXHI) - Talented colt has been well managed by the Pletcher barn over the past two years winning 5-of-10 starts, including a G3 at Keeneland and finishing second in the rich G2 West Virginia Derby. Working very fast locally for his first start since late May and Pletcher will switch him back to the grass for this attempt. The horse to beat, he's one of two entered by the barn and they'll run as separate interests.

2nd pick: #5 (Lonesome Street) - Much-improved runner comes here from Indiana Downs where he won a $105K stakes race at this distance June 22. Four-year-old ran a big race here a year ago when he was beaten a head in the $70K Quick Call Stakes early in 2010 meet. Working nicely for this and he's a win candidate.

3rd pick: #6 (Pocket Cowboys) - New York-bred always gives his best and has finished second in his last two starts, both facing "open" company. Home-bred has a flexible style and should be involved from gate to wire.

4th pick: #8 (Boots Ahead) - Very steady performer was only a half-length back of "Pocket Cowboys" last out at Belmont and that was his first start in just over six months. Lightly raced 5-year-old has enough speed to not let this outside post hurt his chances, and he's a threat from close range.


Del Mar Race #1 at 4:00 PM Eastern

Top pick: #6 (STAYCLASSYANDIEGO) - Claimed out of an easy maiden win at Hollywood Park June 10, filly came back five weeks later and finished third in a $100K stakes on the same surface. Trainer Pete Miller brings her back quickly for this attempt and she faces a much "softer" field. The horse to beat.

2nd pick: #1 (Real Dream) - Hasn't raced since breaking her maiden at Hollywood Park in late April, but she's training steadily for her return and has a very quick gate work on this surface just five days ago. Has good early speed, draws the rail, and is the likely winner if the top pick fails.

3rd pick: #2 (Evelyn's Dancer) - Was an easy winner when debuting June 24 at Emerald Downs and races today off a trainer switch to Troy Taylor (a 36% winning move). Tries tougher today and will do so racing on a synthetic surface for the first time.

4th pick: #4 (Joseph Joe) - Daughter of "Cherokee Run" was competitive in her first three starts before racing poorly in a stakes race at Pleasanton Fair July 2. Defeated by "Real Dream" earlier this year a small slice may be the best this filly can do in this spot.